Tensions grow between Egypt and Ethiopia after the latest diplomatic failure

Write: Omar yasser

ALEXANDRIA- Ethiopia’s chief of staff, Lieutenant General Adam Mohamed, has stated that the Ethiopian Army is “ready to resist any incoming attacks on the Renaissance Dam and carry out counter-attacks against any aggressors” marking a serious escalation in the diplomatic row between Ethiopia and Egypt.

Credit: Google image

As the completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam (Also known as GERD) is becoming ever closer, the diplomatic rift between Egypt and Ethiopia has been growing more and more after a recent chain of escalations initiated by the Ethiopian side. After summits hosted by both sides and even by the neighbouring Sudan have failed to produce any results, both countries headed to Washington for a summit mediated by the USA. Unfortunately, talks broke down after the Ethiopian diplomatic mission failed to attend the last and most crucial meeting to protest the agreement that it saw as “unfair”. According to an anonymous source from the Egyptian General Intelligence: “Ethiopia does not seem interested in making any compromises or promises and are keen to finish the mega project as soon as possible. Their position seems adamant and they are unlikely to have a major change of heart at this point.”

Although Cairo does not seem to be seeking military solutions to the conflict at this time, Ethiopia’s fears and defensiveness probably stem from previous dispositions of the Egyptian government. During the reign of ex-president Mohamed Morsi, an infamous incident occurred in 2013 where Egyptian lawmakers and politicians were accidently heard on live Egyptian television discussing going to war if Ethiopia does not comply. Nationalism is rampant in Egypt as well and many citizens seem to be in favour of hostile solutions because access to the Nile waters is an inherit right that all Egyptians feel privileged to because of the long history and culture that evolved along its banks.

Mr Sameh Shoukry, the Egyptian minister of foreign affairs, has been to nine nations to rally for diplomatic support over the row. Although most of his visits were to neighbouring Arab countries, he also visited Paris and Brussels to bring forth the issue and complain of Ethiopia’s diplomatic rigidity. The Arab league’s 153rd summit was concluded with a resolution that refuses the undermining of Egypt’s historical rights and member states unilaterally showed their support except for Sudan. The Arab league’s resolution welcomes the American agreement and asks for members to pressure Ethiopia into signing it.

The 4.8$ Billion dollar dam is the manifestation of Ethiopia’s grand ambitions and dreams for the future. Ethiopia is rapidly growing and it hopes by constructing this dam it will be able to provide electricity cheaply to all of its citizens while exporting energy to nearby African nations for revenue. The dam is expected to generate 6,000 megawatts of electricity which is a significant amount by the nation’s standards. The country like many other African nations have faced bouts of famine, extreme poverty and civil unrest and the hope of a better economy equates to the hope of a better nation and thus many citizens rally behind this goal.

The source of the row between Egypt and Ethiopia is the fact that both nations believe they are entitled to the water of the Nile and both act accordingly. Since the times of Ancient Egypt and Egyptians have lived on the banks of the Nile river, a life line in an otherwise desert country with few other sources of life. Egyptian culture has evolved along the banks of the Nile and its water remains crucial for sustaining agriculture, drinking water and many more other tasks in Egypt. Ethiopians believe they are entitled to benefit from the river and believe because the Nile starts from there they too should have privileges. Cairo has no problem with that but it fears that if the reservoir is filled rapidly, it could affect water supplies in the country. Adis Ababa insists that it will not affect Egypt’s share of the nile but Egypt remain fearful of the impact it could have. In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, talks are likely to stall further.

UPDATES AS OF- 2/6/2020

Tensions rise among the Nile basin countries as the global Coronavirus pandemic rages on. In the aftermath of the failure of diplomatic consolidation between parties in Washington, the countries have returned to deadlock negotiations without American meditation. Ethiopia has escalated the situation by announcing its intention to start filling up the GERD reservoir despite a lack of an inclusive agreement. In addition, reports have been circulating of Ethiopian militants carrying skirmishes against border towns and villages in the neighboring Sudan. It is notable to mention that Sudan seems to have changed its previous position through joining the Egyptian side. Military conflict still appears to be unlikely as Egyptian president Abdel Fattah El-Sisi remains opposed to military solutions and instead is calling for restraint and more rounds of negotiations. All sides expressed willingness to negotiate once again but compromises will probably have to be made to avoid another dead end. The EU & China have both expressed support of more negotiations between the sides and stressed the importance of deescalating the tensions between the three countries.